Caught in a Rundown

• With tonight's start by Brad Penny, I thought I'd weigh in on the upcoming Penny-Smoltz-Buchholz situation. Basically, Smoltz will be major league ready on Tuesday (Penny's next go around in the rotation) and we're not paying him to strike out Toledo Mud Hens. Buchholz has looked like every bit of a budding ace this year and waits patiently. The best case is the Penny is traded (he can't be traded until next week because he was signed as a free agent), Smoltz steps in, and Buchholz gets whatever spot starts are surely to come up the rest of the season. The problem is that desperation isn't good for trade negotiations. My guess is the Sox will send Penny to any team that will pay his salary. Don't expect a starting shortstop in return.
• Pedroia is batting .219 with a .329 on base percentage since moving to the lead off spot. I vote for the return of Ellsbury (.299/.332 from leadoff) to the top of the order. Either he or JD Drew.
• Anyone else remember Bobby Scales impressing everyone (me and one other person i know) in the outfield in spring training a few years ago? Journeyman infielder just not good enough to make the majors, but boy does he play hard. Well, he's a Cub now and seeming to play pretty well.
• Speaking of the minors, firstbasemen, corner outfield prospect Aaron Bates was just called up to Pawtucket. He had sort of stalled in Portland the last few years. But this year, with some slight adjustments, he appears to be a real prospect again. This might make for some healthy firstbaseman of the future competition with The Lars.
• I think Dice-K is close. He's been wild and unhittable. He has pounded the strike zone and been pounded. His stuff is very good and I think he can find the happy medium soon and be very good again.
• ESPN color guy Rick Sutcliffe was a good pitcher, but he is a horrible commentator. It pained me last night to listen to him. He said Pedroia was struggling because he's swinging too hard. Aparently he's never seen Peddy swing before. He thought the Yankees would pitch around Youk to face Bay with the bases loaded because Bay had struck out three times. He failed to mention the Bay had an RBI single also and is leading the league in RBI's - Dave O'Brien did mention those. My point is the Sut stinks.
  
• Call me a sucker, but I'm happy that the Sox drafted Yaz's grandson.
• Am I the only Sox fan who didn't know that Jason Varitek and NESN sideline reporter Heidi Watney are an item?
• The return on Jed Lowrie in a week or two might spell the unceremonious end to Julio Lugo as a Red Sox. I see no reason the Sox would not dump him. He's going to cry about sitting at the end of the bench, if he can't run because of his leg he is pretty much worthless, and Nick Green has shown he's more than capable of serving as the utility guy.
  

The Papi Problem

The Sox obviously face a serious dilemma in the person designated hitter David Ortiz.

My feeling is that Ortiz is still physically and mentally capable of hitting well - not great, but well. That said, it might still be time for Papi. He might be done.

The Sox should lower Papi in the order (done) and let him play most every day in June. If by the end of the month - or before if the Sox free fall because of an anemic offense - Papi is still not hitting, then the Sox need to give one month to the internal-organizational solutions available.

To be fair to a possible replacement, the Sox should let him (or them) have a month before the July trading deadline to establish themselves. If that does not work, the Sox should look for a trade of some value (best option for me would be trading a high-value prospect for one and a half years of Adam Dunn).

As for Papi, we all obviously love the guy and want him to succeed. And I for one still think he can. But I'm not sure I think he will.

Watching his swing, Papi seems to be letting the fastball get too deep on him. He's not out front, jumping on fastballs. Also, his follow through extension is not high and pronounced like the old days. That said, he's bringing his hands in and through the zone well recently, hitting a few fastballs very hard against the Jays and Tigers.

If by July 1, Papi is not hitting at all still, they go to plan B. And by the way, he will simply not get hot enough to raise his numbers to anything respectable after going more than 200 at bats as simply terrible. That is, at the end of the month we should look at the one month split. If that's better than the alternatives, keep him in the line up batting 6th or 7th.

If he flounders through June, Papi should be put on the DL somehow. They should give one month to Chris Carter. He can hit and can't field. He's a lefty and, against lefties, this scenario would give DH at bats to Rocco B. and Lowell.

After that July expariment, as we close in on the trading deadline, the Sox will have three choices: keep Carter (or Bailey) as the DH, bring back Papi for one last shot, or look at a major trade.

Let's hope Papi can come around. I'm still saying there's a chance.


P.S. Mark Kotsay, a good back-up outfielder and first baseman, and a lucky man, is a terrible option here, despite what Toni Massarotti seems to think. First, he has no pop and doesn't even hit for that good an average. Second, when you DH him you lose him as a back-up outfield option and rely on Rocco, which we have quickly learned is sadly not a reliable reliance (though in this hypothetical, Papi's roster spot would presumably be filled by another outfielder). I prefer Papi right now over Kotsay as DH.

The Real Jason Bay

They say Jason Bay is "boring". He wakes up every morning and puts on his pants just like the rest of us, except the way Canadians do it (don't ask). He goes to work where he hits 30 homers, bats .280, steals some bases without ever getting caught, plays great defense with no arm, and quietly dominates.

But he's not exciting, right? He doesn't have the flare of Manny, correct? He is not intimidating enough to bat clean-up, or even in front of J.D. Drew, yeah?

Wrong.

I met Jason Bay in Florida a few years ago. He was water skiing through the Everglades on the backs of two crocodiles he had wrestled into submission. He was going about 70 miles an hour behind an air boat. He was only using one hand because the other one was used to chug beers.

The Jason Bay I know stole a car from a monestary, gave it back, then stole it again because he was bored.

The Jason Bay I know climbed Everest in flip-flops. He showed the sherpa the best way up and let the little Nepalese guide ride on his back as they slid back down to the camp from the summit.

The Jason Bay I know was clinically dead for 3 weeks as a way of resting after a crazy weekend in Vegas.

I wish you knew Jason Bay like I know Jason Bay. If you did, you'd realize he's a star - and a heck of a fire-eater.

In the media

For years now, I've garnered my Sox news online almost exclusively from the Globe. I've tried to read some on the blogosphere and check out the Herald's site sometimes as well. But it always comes back to the Globe.

I've noticed now and then that the Globe references reporting by the Providence Journal and thought, when I was bored one day recently, I'd check out their site. What I've found as I've returned now and then is that, in terms of simple news gathering, it seems to be the best thing out there. I share this because I'm surprised. I thought with the Globe's stable of reporters and use of blogs to give updates throughout the day, they were keeping me up to date, but it doesn't seem to be that way.

Case in point: Thursday afternoon, the Globe blog posted that Chris Carter was being sent down. Nothing remarkable about that. I check rather regularly so I'll estimate that they posted it around 3pm yesterday (the linked-to version of the post in question was updated with the intel that Carter was being replaces by Van Every so the hour listed is 9pm but I saw it there well before that). Seems reasonable.

But then I check the ProJo site. They had the same story, only they had posted it about 16 hours earlier at 11pm on Wednesday night.

Ok, I don't mind a little scoopage. But I'm very disappointed that a major league roster move by the Sox was clearly taking place and the Globe took half a day to put it up on their blog. Sort of misses the point of blogs.

Get Carter

Why do the Sox have Chris Carter on their roster at all? I like the lefthanded, firstbasemen/(bad) outfielder, hitting machine we got for Wily Mo Pena (who, by the way, was picked up by the Mets after the Nats (yes, the Nats of 100 loses and too many mediocre outfielders)).

That said, if the Sox are not starting him at first base in game one of the double header today, there is not point in having him on the roster. The Twins are starting a righty in game one and a lefty in game two. Why not start Carter at first and move Youk to third for game one, giving Lowell one game off?

Two possible explainations that I don't agree with: game two might get rained out so playing Lowell in game one guarentees that you play him today. Or, playing Youkilis at third in game one and first in game two would be too hard for the Greek God of the Corners.

I don't agree. Basically, you should not carry someone on your ML roster if you won't use him in obvious circumstances, unless you are the Padres and only have 15 players good enought to be on a 25 man roster.


Update 4/23/09
The Sox sent Carter to Pawtucket today. No word yet who will replace him on the major league roster. My guess is that they call up John Van Every. He's a left-handed hitting centerfielder with a good arm who's already on the 40 man roster (unlike fellow older Pawtucket outfielder Chip Ambres who is not a real centerfielder and is not on the 40 man so would require the Sox to waive someone). My only hesitation with Van Every - who played a couple games for the Boston team last year - is that he's fresh off an injury.

Fie to you WBC!!!

Ok, I spoke too soon. We are short a pitcher (and maybe two, if Becket's suspension is upheld). What to do now?

The Sox lost Dice-K to WBC desease for a few weeks at least. He'll probably miss two or three starts. Since he's generally healthy and pitched so well in his second, Faustian, MVP-winning World Baseball "Classic", I feel good about him coming back strong. But this is when that 9 man starting staff comes into play.

I propose that the Sox hand over the Dice-K rotation slot to the 9th man on that list: Michael Bowden.

This comes from a process of elimination. It goes this way. First choice: John Smoltz is unavailable because 50 year old pitchers don't pitch until June. Second choice: Clay Buchholz has a slight hamstring injury. Why risk it for 2 emergency starts?

This brings us to Justin Masterson, the consensus shoo-in to fill the Dice Man's spot. The logic goes this way: Masterson pitched wonderfully for 4 innings when Matsuzaka left his last start, he's already on the roster, and we trust him as a Nation.

The problem is that this move leaves you with two question marks on your 12 man staff. Masterson would not be available late in games, leaving that job to Saito and Ramirez (the new, sane one) to fill the righty set up role. That's something we all hope - and expect? - them to do by the end of the summer, but right now I'm just not confident in them. And it's my confidence that matters here, clearly.

Masterson is also a question mark in the rotation. I think he can be a good starter, but when he starts he can't throw as hard and the fact that he really only has two pitches is exposed.

The best thing is to leave Masterson where he is in the pen - though perhaps doing one spot start if Beckett is suspended - and calling up Bowden to replace Hunter Jones on the roster once the starter is needed (Monday's 11am Patriot's Day game against B-more).

Bowden gives us as good a chance to win as Masterson would starting. Meanwhile, Masterson being available in the pen gives us a better chance to win every game than does Masterson starting and Big Hunter (or Daniel Bard) in the pen.

Where am I?

Someone told me that the Sox have won only two games in the first seven, I called that person a liar and spat on their floor. My mom shouldn't talk such foolishness.

I am truly sorry to get a late start on the season, folks. My fan(s) are (is) disappointed and rightfully so(s).

I am not worried about the Sox. Yet. The fundamentals remain strong: they have great starting pitching, great bullpen, very good defense, and above average offense. The worry comes from early under-performing by key players and the losing that follows, especially when you play maybe the best two teams in the league. The fact is that the Sox barely lost two series to two teams that would be reasonable picks to face each other in the ALCS. Then the A's piled on a bit. That game must remind us that baseball is not a game that is meant to be viewed through a one-game lens.

The Sox greatest worry is Jon Lester. He looked so strong the first few innings of his first start, but he has been hit hard ever since. While I've seen enough baseball to know that balls do indeed fall based on luck, bad hitters break bats against good pitchers' good pitches and end up heroes, I also know that, if I weren't so happily biased, I'd know that Lester is in a precarious position. He was an ace last year, but there are a few legitimate questions and worries remaining. While I think that modern baseball orthodoxy's proclamation that anything more than a 25-30 inning jump in a season for a young pitcher is arbitrary and far too concrete, I do worry about Lester going from zero to 60 so quickly. Additionally, I wonder why we think we're immune to flashing in the pan. Why wouldn't Lester be dominant for a year then drift off. Why is he better than Justin Verlander? Honestly, all that said, I still believe in the kid. But I have to wonder about him.

Ok, I've already written too much and, guess what time it is, time to get to the point. Why the Sox will be alright:

• Smoltz and Buch - let's say that Lester does break down, that Wake's back really gives out, what then? Well, the Sox run a starting staff nine deep with pitchers that would likely start for any other team. We have John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Justin Masterson all perfectly adequate starters.
• Papi and Peddy - The Sox have a bunch of players - Pedroia, Ortiz, Lowell, and Drew - who, if healthy, are guarenteed to produce at, at worst, a better than average clip. None of them have shown up.
• Before last night against the A's, the Sox had only lost one game by more than a couple runs. They had played the Angels and the Rays, both of which most people expect to be powerhouses in the league, only rivaled by the Sox and Yanks. My point is basically that we're only EIGHT GAMES INTO THE SEASON.
• Brad Penny - the guy looked like a horse again. He is a big time winner and had the same stuff he did a few years ago a last week. There is a very good chance that he will be a very very strong starter this year. I have no doubt that he was a better deal than A.J. Burnett with the Yanks - they have about the same chance of dominating (and of failing) and we're paying much less and for only a year. For Burnett, on the fifth year of his deal, I wouldn't be surprised if his arm is held together with staples and duct tape.