Shortstops

The Blue Jays signed 2-time, former-Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez today to a one year deal with an option. So, the Sox' quest to fill that moves on with one answer: Gonzo won't be back.

The Sox seem to have (rightly) decided that they cannot start next season with Jed Lowrie as the starter. I still think that a healthy Lowrie can be a very good major league starting infielder. He can really hit and doesn't make many mistakes on offense. I remember when he was in the minors the talk was as if he was a switching hitting Pedroia with more power. Yet, his calling card thus far with the Sox has been defense. That said, he's been injured a lot so far.

The best option for the Sox is Marco Scutaro. He had a career year last year at the age of 34 with the Blue Jays. With the Jays moving on to Gonzo, Scutaro is truely a free agent. His age will keep the price and length reasonable. His career as a utility guy (career games by position: 3 at 1B, 306 at 2B, 98 at 3B, 415 at SS, 14 at LF, and 4 at RF) and his high on base skills make him a perfect Sox. He could start until (if) Lowrie makes the Sox switch starters. If that happens, he'd be a great utility man. His age will keep the the contract short enough that he won't stand in the way of future star, 19 year old Cuban ex-pat Jose Iglesias.

If this doesn't work out, the Sox will either need to sign someone from an unspectacular list including Miguel Tejada, Khalil Greene, and Orlando Cabrera. Or they go with Lowrie, a Wish, and a prayer. After Scutaro, my money would be on going with Lowrie with a cheap good-fielding backup like former-Sox Alex Cora or Adam Everett.

Pitch Perfect (almost)

The Sox do not have a whole lot of room for improvement in their pitching staff. The difference between this starting rotation and a championship staff is a little more offense and a truly dominant playoff performance or two - something I think we can count on from the likes of Misters Beckett and Lester as much as with any other team's dynamic duo.

The only chance for a major upgrade is with a blockbuster trade for someone like the Mariners' Felix Hernandez. But, the Mariners had a good year this year and I expect them to resign their ace. Also, those trades are not easy and can backfire. The Sox pulled one off when the infamous (why is that again?) former GM Dan Duquette traded Tony Armas, Jr. and Carl Pavano for Pedro. But, for every one of those trades, there's one trade where the Expos rent Bartolo Colon (at the time one of the best pitchers in the game) for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips (all of whom are stars today).

Meanwhile, Beckett and Lester are both true aces. I don't like the murmurs of trading Beckett because he's in the last year of his deal - though I see that it's something that should be considered I guess. Lester is right there with the likes of Sabathia and Santana as dominant lefties. He'll win a Cy Young if he starts off the year as he's ended the last two - in 2008 and 2009 he had post-break ERAs in the 2's and a combined 16-5 record. As for Beckett, he seems a bit inconsistent, but I don't think he's any more inconsistant than other aces in the league. You're bound to have some bad steaks in 30+ starts and the hallmark of a good pitcher is getting out of those unavoidable tailspins and Beck lives up to that.

Likewise, Clay Buchholz proved he's a keeper with a micro verson of what I just said about Beck on a macro level. That is, Buchholz would struggle for an inning or two then settle himself and keep the team in the game. In 2007, Lester had a second decent partial-major league season which ended with a very good playoff start, launching him into what we know now. I think we saw Buchholz in 2009 have a similar year and a similar turning point.

Dice-K needs to come to camp in great shape. I expect he will because he must know he's on the verge of failure. He simply cannot have another year like 2009 and expect to have a rotation spot on any team in 2011, let alone the Red Sox. He's a proud and very talented athlete and I expect him to be motivated and have his best year yet. He has every tool to be a dominant starter. That said, the Sox need to be prepared in case he falters.

I was wrong about Wake. I was convinced all year that this was his last one. He was hurting, getting older, and made the all star team so I thought it made sense that this would be the offseason he'd bid us farewell. That said, he's still effective and I'm sure he was disappointed with his non-existant second half of the season. While his surgery might have fixed things, he's still 43 years old and there's a reason why almost no one pitches that long. The body breaks down. And no, being a knuckleballer does not negate this arguement. He still puts effort into every pitch; he just doesn't have much of an arm and the force is lost because he's holding the ball with his fingernails.

The Wake situation almost guarantees youngster Michael Bowden a roster spot. He's a starter with a good chance to be a solid 4 or 5 in a rotation someday. He pitched very well at Pawtucket last year. Also, in short relief for the Sox in a few outings last season, he looked like that might be where he ends up at the major league level. He throws pretty hard and is agressive in the strike zone. He fits perfectly into the roll as long man and Wakefield backup. Junichi Tazawa will be his top competition for this spot but I think the less-experienced Tazawa is best off learning in Pawtucket and coming up when a starter goes down for an extended time rather than a spot-start.

The bullpen is very good. Very good! Papelbon is great and will remain the closer for at least a few more years. Daniel Bard is dominant; Ramon Ramirez (70 games, 2.84 ERA) was very solid; Oki had another good year; and Delcarman* had a great first half and a stinker of a tailend. The team has likely lost Saito (who I kept forgetting all year but really was great) and Rent-a-Wagner. At this point I think the last roster spot goes to 6'6" lefty rookie Dustin Richardson. I loved the way he looked in his 3 Boston games this year and I think we should have a second lefty when possible. That said, I am sure Epstein will bring in a few free agent relievers to compete for spots.

I frankly worry that Oki might be about done. His "stuff" has never been great but last year it seemed pretty bad, like he was getting by with Frank Tanana junk and moxy (what is moxy? or guile? Do I have either? Probably not...). I hope I'm wrong about my Oki hunch, but the Sox could really use a Wagner-esque set up guy to help out the still very young Bard (of course, which team couldn't use someone like Wagner?).

There are a few free agents I'd take a flyer on if you can afford them - a la Brad Penny and Smoltz. Ben Sheets took last year off to rehab from arm surgery. He's planning to comeback this year and given his often-dominant track record when healthy, he should get a good deal of attention from a number of teams but still not get priced too high. I also like the idea of the Sox signing a free agent lefty starter. I wouldn't mind signing Erik Bedard or Doug Davis. Bedard has the most talent but is usually hurt. Davis is way under the radar but consistently good (though probably not under the radar of "real" GMs, as opposed to backseat executives like yours truly).

This staff it appears will be throwing to the same two catchers, V-Mart and Tek. I hope the coaching staff puts more emphasis this year on holding runners because neither of these guys has the throwing talent to make up for the staff's indifference toward baserunners. The team recently released George Kottaras (someone I always really rooted for for some reason) whose landed with the Brewers. It looks like Dusty Brown - who leads to team in name-awesomeness - will be primary fall-back plan in case of an injury with a possible switch to the younger and more talented Mark Wagner if he's ready. I hope Wagner gets a cup of coffee this year because he might be the backup in 2011.


*If you made it this far you can read one more rambling paragraph. I love local boy mini-Manny Delcarman. But he was baaaaad at the end of last year. There has always been talk about trading him to a place where he'd get a chance to close or be the primary set up guy, but now is not the time to trade him as his value is probably lower than it should be. My random thought is this: if Manny's surgically repaired arm can take it (big if), why not bring him into spring training as a starter? The guy throws hard and has a nasty change-up and curve. He has three good pitches and I think his maddening inability to pound the strike zone is actually a bit more managable as a starter than a reliever. That said, I think of this more like what the Sox did with Pap a few years ago. Bring Delcarman into camp and let him see if starting works for him. Doubtful he'll make the rotation but maybe he does. If he doesn't, he'd be ready to spot start and it might raise his trade value. Just a thought.

In the market for hitters

I am not going to dwell on the debacle that was the ALDS. The Sox couldn't hit against two good-but-not-great pitchers (Lackey and Weaver) and then Papelbon blew game 3. That said, the Sox were and are a good team. They have some great young players (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, and Paps) and great prime-of-career players (Beckett, Youkilis, and V-Mart).

The first thing I'll say is that Papelbon is far from done and is still one of the elite closers. You should look at the closers out there. Rivera and Nathan are maybe better - though guess who blew game 2 for the Twins this year and guess who Dave Roberts scored against a few years back. Paps is also 28 years old, as opposed to Nathan's 34 or Rivera's 73 years of age. For young guns, I'd only consider 25-year olds Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers - blew the last playoff game), Andrew Bailey (A's), or Joakim Soria (Royals) as having even a chance of being as good as Paps is at his worst. Lastly, Daniel Bard is not at all ready and will not be for a few years. And even at that point, he might simply not translate into a closer - ask Kyle Farnsworth, his 100 mph gas, and his 27 saves in 10 solid years.

With that, let's chat about the hitters. I'll take on the rest of the pitching staff later.

The Starting Nine

The Sox can upgrade at a few positions, but only if they move from good, to great players. They could possibly upgrade at four roster spots: Papi, Lowell, Gonzalez and maybe Bay. Papi ended up playing pretty well for the season as a whole but was maddeningly inconsistent. With Papi and Bay in the lineup you have two guys who can hit 30 homers while spending months as an easy out. Go figure.

Lowell too had a decent year and should be better next year with added recovery time from his hip injury. That said, Lowell and Papi had, respectively, a .208 and .144 slugging differential between home and away. The Sox struggled with streaky hitting and terrible production away from the Fens. These two are the biggest culprits of the regulars in a slugging drop off once they leave the friendly confines (though Peddy wasn't much better unsurprisingly).

Bay was at times great. He carried the team and was very good in nearly every aspect of the game. Though, like the others I just mentioned, he's the ant-Youk and V-Mart. When he's not playing well he would bounce out on a Wakefield "heater." They don't seem to give you good at bats when they're not hitting. When Papi, Lowell and Bay are all struggling, you should hope your pitcher throws a shutout.

At short, Gonzalez was a beautiful fielder who surprised a bit with his bat. However, he has limited range and has a track record of being a terrible hitter. There are definitely better shortstops out there but I'm not sure we'll get one.

The Sox have limited high-level offensive prospects they can count on for anything next year so don't look to Pawtucket or Portland for a savior in the lineup. Josh Reddick is the closest to ready any hitter is and he's not there yet. Aside from him, outfielder Ryan Kalish, shortstop Yamaico Navarro, and first baseman Lars Anderson are the only prospects with much of any chance to sip coffee next year. Part of me wants the team to let someone like Navarro - or completely untested, 19 year old Cuban ex-pat Jose Iglesias - sink or swim at shortstop. I always wonder about these slick fielding, super raw, young infielders: really, I say to me, what would you lose with them running around like Rey Ordonez but hitting like... Rey Ordonez. Isn't that sort of what Gonzalez gives us - with less range but fewer errors? Anyway, I'm sure Tito knows best on this one but I had to share that.

At short, the Sox should either resign Gonzalez for a year, or go after Marco Scutaro - the 33 year old career utility guy had a breakout year for Toronto. He can hit and field, and he should not cost a ton since he's 33 and has a scant record as an everyday player. But, worse case scenario, he's a great backup and can play more positions than Gonzo. Lowrie still might be very good someday, but they have to have a plan A and make Jed force them to play him.

To upgrade from Lowell, the Sox would have to make a trade for a first baseman and move Youk to third full-time. The best candidates I can see who might be tradebait are Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn and Derrek Lee (who has a no-trade clause). All three will be in the last years of their contracts.

The other option I love is to somehow convince the Angels - yes, those Angels - that they should trade us third baseman/shortstop Brandon Wood. He's only 24 but for this is the third year in a row the Angels did not give this young slugger a regular spot in their line-up. This isn't going to happen but I'd love to put him at third.

As for left field, the Sox pretty much need Jason Bay. No way Matt Holliday is coming back to the American League and the free agent pool for outfielders is weak at best. The other options are that you could let Reddick or Aaron Bates learn out there, pray for Rocco and a back up, make a trade, pay for Carl Crawford if the Rays don't exercise their $10 mill. option, or sign someone like Myron Byrd, Andrew Jones, or Xavier Nady - yeah, those are pretty much the choices.

So, the Sox lineup could use some improvement but there aren't too many options out there. Epstein has shocked us before so maybe he'll pull a crazy one out of his hat.

Keys to Game 3

Here's how you win this game over a team that would thus have lost the game.

• Be more better than the Angels
• Pitch well
• Score more runs within 9 innings than the other team can score.
• Score more than zero runs - the more runs you score, the better.
• Don't walk Bobby Abreau four times
• Hit a ball over the outfield fence. Doing that counts for at least one run every time.
• Win one game at a time. You literally can't win three games in one day, literally. It'd be really tiring anyway.
  

Re- and Preview

The regular season is done, complete with 95 wins. Let's have a quick look back then a look forward toward the playoffs. In the 2009 regular season, we saw:

• Papi's career was erroneously pronounced dead twice this year. Once for a remarkably bad start to the season. And a second time when he slumped dramatically following the revelation that he used a "banned substance" - probably, maybe, according to an anonymous source illegally leaking court documents. It really shouldn't surprise us that Papi's productivity so closely relates to his mental state (slump one snowballed under massive pressure and slump two he was accused of cheating). I'm just glad he's usually so jolly and thus productive.
• There were points when it looked like Gil Valazquez might be our starting shortstop. Anyone's list of team MVP should include Nick Green for not being an easy out and making a few plays at short. He stepped up pre-Gonzo after Lugo (surprise!) sucked and Lowrie (surprise!) watched his wrist implode.
• Jason Varitek proved he really can't throw or hit anymore. He's basically done. He might be back next year if he picks up his $3 million player option. But the Sox shouldn't pick up their $5 million team option. The team would be better off with Dusty Brown playing good defense as V-Mart's back up.
  
• Lester showed he's the real deal. Remember, this was only his second good year really. I can't believe he's only 25.
• We all fell in love with V-Mart. He makes for a lineup with tough outs 1-8.
• It appears we've seen the last of Wake. With his age (43) and back issues, I don't see him coming back next year. He went out with an all-star appearance and a first half of the season during which he saved the team. I wish he could pull a Willis Reed moment but I sort of doubt it's in the cards. Regardless, Wake will be missed and he'll be one of the hardest Sox legends to describe to future fans ("he was great and bad, started and closed. He was left off playoff rosters and pitched key key innings. Gave up the Aaron Boone homer and saved the 2004 champions by getting crushed for 3 1/3 innings of 'relief'... got it?" )

Looking to the playoffs:

• In what feels like opposite world, I'm more concerned about the bullpen than the starters. Lester and Beckett can win 3 of 4 games against any opposing duo. That will rely on Buchholz and Dice-K to be good enough to win only a couple games. I like our chances with this math equation.
  
• My concern is with the bad Sept. pitching of bullpen stalwarts Oki, Ramirez and Delcarman. Meanwhile, Bard is a rookie and Wagner is fragile. For the first time this year, I worry about getting to Paps.
• This is a different Angels team and the patience of Bobby Abreau and the emergence of young power-hitting Kendry Morales really gives them a new look. I worry that their new patience will force more reliance on the Sox middle relief than is past years, something I wouldn't have feared in August when Delcarman could get someone out.
  
• Our lineup is confusing. It's very deep and will wear out a pitcher. However, it seems that good pitching can shut it down more so than a great lineup. To win these games we'll need Ellsbury to create a few runs with his legs and we'll need homers from Bay and Drew. I expect solid production from Peddy, Youk and V-Mart - but not necessarily homeruns.
  
• Our defense is really excellent right now. When your weak link is Jason Bay's arm and Mike Lowell's mobility, you're doing well. With one massive exception...
• V-Mart is not a whole lot better than Tek in throwing people out. This is part talent, but more so a Joe Kerrigan-esque, wanton disregard for holding runners on from our pitchers. This will be improved by the fact that neither Wake nor Brad Penny will pitch, but still it's scary. I fully expect Chone Figgins to steal home from second base sometime this series.
• At the risk of jinxing us, I don't think John Lackey is very good. We have a much better starting four than they do. My biggest worry is that Scott Kazmir could probably shut down the Sox with his right arm - and he's a lefty.
• The roster: good move to put Lowrie on the roster. Even if Green were healthy, Lowrie is a better fielder and better hitter righty. He's shown he physically can hit lefty even though they'd rather he didn't right now because of the wrist. Also, the rules let them take him off the roster if he breaks down (which would make him ineligable for the following series I believe). Delcarman shouldn't make the roster because he's been bad and he's hurt from a car accident. Joey Gathright and Baldelli or Brian Anderson will be the outfield backup. I don't think they'll go with 3 catchers. Lastly, looks like Byrd will get the long relief duty rather than risk the mental health of Bowden if you made him clean up some disasterous game.
  
• Prediction: Lester and Beckett will dominate. Bay and Drew will crush the ball. Pedroia, Youk and V-Mart will be on base constantly. Chone Figgins will score half the time he gets on. Angels' closer/firestarter Brian Fuentes will blow a couple saves. The Sox will beat the Angels in five.

You can see the playoff schedule here. First two games start at 9:30pm on Thu. and Fri. night. I'm tired already. Matchups: Lackey vs. Lester, Weaver vs. Beckett, Kazmir vs. Buchholz, Saunders vs. Dice-K (probably).

Musical Bats

The talk of the Red Sox world seems to be the playing time distribution of the corner infielders, catchers, and DHs (Ok, people are also worried about starting pitching, and most anything else depending on the day as well. But I digress.).

The Sox have six players with starting credentials and four spots. The players are Youk, Victor Martinez, Mike Lowell, Papi, Tek and Casey Kotchman. Seems like there are a lot of theories out there on how to make this work. Really though, there is one answer and it's exactly what they're doing now.

Youkilis and V-Mart will play every day. They are your third and clean-up hitters, good or great fielders who can each play two hard positions.

Kotchman is good, but he's a bench player. He'll probably play first when Wake pitches until further notice because if Wake can't walk you don't want Lowell at third, and with Martinez catching him, Youk has to play third. Kotchman is our first base Miribelli.

That leaves two spots for Lowell, Papi and Tek. The best line up has Tek sitting. That said, Martinez is not an everyday catch so he should start about 2 days a week at first.

So, Tek catches Lester and Beckett. Kotchman firstbases Wake for now. That means Lowell plays third and Ortiz DH's when Buchholz and Tazawa pitch. On the other three days, they platoon at DH.

Simple.

This is a great problem to have. If anyone thinks that Lowell or Papi will cause a problem, I highly disagree. In hockey, Lowell would wear an A on his jersey. And Papi just wants to be loved after the "steroid" scandal

Big Victory (i.e. Lose)

Today was a good game for the Sox - perhaps more important than a quote unquote win. Yeah yeah, they lost. But Buchholz pitched a second straight very good game. I could be wrong... I might be wrong... ok, given "reality" and "history", I probably am wrong. But this could be that point when a great talent becomes a good pitcher. Buchholz has shut down the Yankees and Tigers the last two times out. He's look confident and used all of those pitches well - the reason the don't even consider him as a bullpen possibility. This is the reason we didn't trade him away. While we're at it, any thoughts on a nickname if Clay Buchholz is good... or if he's bad?

Claystien?
Buchole?
Skinny Holz?

Damn, drawing a blank. Help me...

So You're Saying There's a Chance...

We lose six in a row to our main division rivals, the Yankees and Tampa. Then we come back to win three in a row against a good Tigers team - five games over five hundred and leading a three-team race for the central title by two games over the Pale Hose and Twinkies. What to make of this?

The Sox are a good team which should still make the playoffs in a tight race with the Rangers and Rays. The main differences between the Yankees and Sox last weekend were a) Alex Rodriquez is just insanely good, and b) the Sox were so injured that Enrique Gonzalez (he of the now three straight years of +10 ERA) and Chris Woodward had to play, and Youkilis had to play outfield.

To the first point, the Sox lost two of the four Yankees games at least in part because A-Rod hit good pitches. Tazawa's pitch in the 15th inning looked like a rolling breaking ball but in a good location. Similarly, A-Rod broke another 0-0 tie with a solo shot in the 7th inning of the last game of the series. Again, A-Rod crushed a breaking ball that was appropriately low, this time from Lester. Sometimes great hitters crush good pitches. Right now, the Sox don't themselves have a power hitter who can kill a good pitcher's good pitch. That was the difference maker.

The fact is that the Sox have a great bullpen, 2 ace starters, and a deep line up in which our 7th hitter is either Lowell, Bay, Drew, Papi, or Kotchman. Not too shabby. The Sox lack an elite power hitter (V-Mart and Youk are great hitters with power, not elite power hitters). No one is sure what we'll get from Penny, Buchholz or Tazawa the rest of the season, though there are reasons for optomism. We do need Wake back and even Dice-K seems like a better and better option, this year.

My point is that the Sox are still a good team and back-to-back sweeps by the Rays and Yanks didn't nullify that. The Sox were playing away from home against very good teams when we were extremely banged up. I hoped for a split of both series. No such luck. Moving on.